Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science: Miscellaneous Statistics Archives. November 2. 1, 2. The Denominator, or, Is it an advantage to have a humble background? Archives: Comic 3312: Morally Dubious Comic 3311: Dead To Rights Comic 3310: Bleminda Rides Again Comic 3309: Hard Earned Lesson Comic 3308: Context Is Everything. Welcome to Old Children's Books, selling children's literature and picture books online since 1994. We have a collection of more than 10,000 scarce and out-of-print. New York Times 9 August 2016 by The Associated Press. BUCHAREST, Romania—The body of Anne of Romania, the wife of the country's ex-king, arrived in Bucharest. Come and join the Park Ranger for some urban foraging looking at all the things you can find growing. 4 Pics 1 Word Answers: Level 2243 – STEEL – white rope, man with defined abdomen muscles, bolts and nuts, something grey/white/silver. Malcolm Gladwell recounts the story of Sidney Weinberg, a kid who grew up in the slums of Brooklyn around 1. Goldman Sachs and well- connected rich guy extraordinaire. But Andrew Carnegie went farther. He believed that poverty provided a better preparation for success than wealth did; that, at root, compensating for disadvantage was more useful, developmentally, than capitalizing on advantage. At some level, there's got to be some truth to this: you learn things from the school of hard knocks that you'll never learn in the Ivy League, and so forth. The chairman of General Foods avowed, “Sidney is the only man I know who could ever say to me in the middle of a board meeting, as he did once, . That he felt free to deliver the rebuke in the first place is testament to his sociological position. You can’t tell the chairman of General Foods that he’s an idiot if you were his classmate at Yale. But you can if you’re Pincus Weinberg’s son from Brooklyn. Truthtelling is easier from a position of cultural distance. Is this really true? This is a description of one of the problems. But his progress had slowed to a crawl. It is, Bertoni and others have discovered, maddeningly hard to determine how much people will like it. When Bertoni runs his algorithms on regular hits like “Lethal Weapon” or “Miss Congeniality” and tries to predict how any given Netflix user will rate them, he’s usually within eight- tenths of a star. But with films like “Napoleon Dynamite,” he’s off by an average of 1. They cannot anticipate the eccentric ways that real people actually decide to take a chance on a movie. Actually, computers do quite a good job modeling probability distributions for those more eccentric and unpredictable of us. Yes, the humble probability distribution, the centuries- old staple of statisticians is enough to model eccentricity! The problem is that Netflix makes it hard to use sophisticated models the scoring function is the antiquated and not just pre- Bayesian but actually pre- probabilistic root mean squared error or RMSE. For all practical purposes, the square root in RMSE is a monotonic transformation that won't affect the ranking of recommender models, and we can drop it outright. So, if one looked at the distribution of ratings for Napoleon Dynamite on Amazon, it has high variance: On the other hand, Lethal Weapon 4 ratings have lower variance: If we use the average number of stars as the context- ignorant unpersonalized predictor (which I've discussed before), ND will give you mean squared pain of 3. LW4 will give you the mean squared pain of 2. Now, your model might choose not to make recommendations with controversial movies - but this won't help you on Netflix Prize - you're forced to make errors even when you know you're making them. It builds on excellence in the core disciplines—earth sciences, biological sciences, engineering sciences, social sciences, and health sciences—and stresses cross- disciplinary approaches to complex problems. Through research, training, and global partnerships, The Earth Institute mobilizes science and technology to advance sustainable development and address environmental degradation, placing special emphasis on the needs of the world’s poor. The Earth Institute seeks applications from innovative postdoctoral candidates or recent Ph. D., M. D., and J. D. Those who have developed cross- disciplinary approaches during graduate studies will find numerous opportunities to engage in leading research programs that challenge their skills. Candidates for the Postdoctoral Fellows Program should submit a proposal for research that would contribute to the goal of global sustainable development. This could take the form of participating in and contributing to an existing multidisciplinary Earth Institute project, an extension of an existing project, or a new project that connects existing Institute expertise in novel ways. Candidates should identify their desired small multidisciplinary mentoring team, i. Columbia with whom they would like to work during their fellowship. For detailed information on The Earth Institute, its research centers, programs, and affiliated Columbia University departments, please visit http: //www. Fellowships will ordinarily be granted for a period of 2. More information on the Postdoctoral Fellows Program is available at http: //www. Application forms should be completed online at http: //fellows. Applications submitted by December 1, 2. For more information, contact: Rita Ricobelli Corradi. Research Director, OARPrricobelli@ei. The Earth Institute at Columbia University. B- 1. 6 Hogan Hall, MC 3. Broadway. New York, NY 1. Program e- mail: fellows@ei. Columbia University is an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer. Minorities and women are encouraged to apply. Considerable evidence, including several large- scale studies of twins, points toward a genetic component. Yet psychopaths are more likely to come from neglectful families than from loving, nurturing ones. I'm confused here. By default, I'd think (a) and (b) would go together. I'm doing this in a study of firm growth in the cellular industry. In this setting, we need to control for firm size since firm's propensity to grow is definitely affected by its size. Someone suggested to me that I may have correlation between the size variable and the error term, since size is effectively in the denominator of the growth variable. They suggested using just the numerator of the growth term (subscribers added) as the outcome, since the denominator will be controlled for in the regression. Do you agree that there is a potential for bias in using size as a regressor for growth? My reply: Yes, it makes sense to control for size (at the beginning of the study) in your regressions, probably on the log scale. A Ph. D in statistics or a related field and commitment to high quality research and teaching in statistics and/or probability are required. Outstanding candidates in all areas are strongly encouraged to apply. The department has been expanding rapidly and, like the University itself, is an extraordinarily vibrant academic community. For further information about the department and our activities, centers, research areas, and curricular programs, please go to our web page at: http: //www. All applications must be uploaded through our online site at http: //academicjobs. Central? quick. Find=5. Inquiries may be made to dk@stat. Review of applications will begin December 1, 2. Applications received after this date may be considered until the position is filled or the search is closed. Columbia University is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer. The commission was chaired by William R. Fitzsimmons, the dean of admissions and financial aid at Harvard. Although well- meaning, many of the suggestions only make sense if you say them fast. Among their conclusions were that schools should consider making their admissions . The commission cites the success that pioneering schools with this policy have had in the past as proof of concept. Howard continues: Has the admissions process been hampered in schools that have instituted an SAT optional policy? Bowdoin is a small, highly competitive liberal arts college in Brunswick, Maine. A shade under 4. 00 students a year elect to matriculate at Bowdoin, and roughly a quarter of them choose not to submit their SAT scores. In fact the correlation between grades and SAT scores was 1. So not having this information does not improve the academic performance of Bowdoin's entering class — on the contrary it diminishes it. Why would a school opt for such a policy? Why is less information preferred to more? We see that if all of the students in Bowdoin's entering class had their SAT scores included the average SAT at Bowdoin would sink from 1. Since mean SAT scores are a key component in school rankings, a school can game those rankings by allowing their lowest scoring students to not be included in the average. I believe that Bowdoin's adoption of this policy pre- dates US News and World Report's rankings, so that was unlikely to have been their motivation, but I cannot say the same for schools that have chosen such a policy more recently. Interesting. More specifically, we explore the existence of partisan cycles in FDI investment performance, which should be reflected in different patterns of investment at the industrial level. While there has been extensive work on the effects of policy decisions (trade and tax policy in particular) on aggregate FDI flows (Feldstein, Hines, & Hubbard 1. Hines 2. 00. 1), we find that that the link between partisanship and investment performance has not been duly explored in the literature. The first paper of this series, The Politics of Investment: Partisanship and the Sectoral Allocation of FDI, was published in the June 2. Economics & Politics. We are currently working on several extensions: Partisanship, Imperfect Capital Mobility and the Sectoral Allocation of FDI; Partisan Governments, Wages and Employment.? Szpiro, Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington- Topic: TBA- Date: October 1. Speaker: Dr. Hernando Ombao, Brown University- Topic: TBA- Date: October 2. Speaker: Dr. David Brillinger, Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley- Topic: TBA- For more information, see http: //www. The Effect of Health on the Marginal Utility of Consumption- Date: October 1. Speaker: Rajeev Cherukupalli- Topic: TBA- Date: October 2. Speaker: Tumer Kaplan- Topic: TBA- Date: October 2. Speaker: Amitabh Chandra- Topic: TBA- For more information, see http: //www. Econometrics workshop- Date: October 9, 2. Speaker: Arthur Lewbel, Boston College- Topic: TBA- Date: October 1. Speaker: Peter Reinhardt Hansen, Stanford- Topic: TBA- Date: October 2.
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